[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 170/124

GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Feb             08 Feb             09 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            180/133            180/133


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 06 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       15   3343 2333
      Darwin                -   ---- ----
      Townsville           12   3333 2322
      Learmonth            12   3332 2333
      Canberra             13   2343 2233
      Hobart               12   2343 1233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 FEB : 
      Darwin               NA
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0000 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Feb    10    Quiet to unsettled 
08 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A short period of moderately large southward IMF preceded 
an isolated active period of geomagnetic activity for 06-09UT. 
The solar wind disturbance was likely due to recent CME events 
and/or a small coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: There is the small chance that HF conditions may become 
slightly degraded for 7 Feb in association with the slight increase 
in geomagnetic activity observed on 6 February. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
06 Feb   144

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Feb   125    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
08 Feb   130    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Feb   135    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: There is the small chance that HF conditions may become 
slightly degraded for 7 Feb in association with the slight increase 
in geomagnetic activity observed on 6 February. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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