[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1F 29/2256UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 247/197

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Dec             01 Jan             02 Jan
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   250/200            250/200            245/195
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. 
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1931UT on 30 
Dec. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 30 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      26   5444 3345
      Darwin              22   5433 2345
      Learmonth           21   5433 3335
      Canberra            21   4443 3344
      Hobart              20   4443 4234
      Casey(Ant)          37   5555 4345
      Davis(Ant)          24   4--4 4345
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 DEC : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              63   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             10   2422 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Dec    30    Active to Minor storm 
01 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
02 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 51 was issued on 30 December 
and is current for interval 31 December only. Magnetic activity 
is expected to be unsettled to minor storm. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 30 12 2001 2125UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
30 Dec   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 112

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Dec   120    near predicted monthly values 
01 Jan   130    near predicted monthly values 
02 Jan   138    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 87 was issued on 29 December 
and is current for interval 30 December to 1 January (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: M1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:   37.5 p/cc  Temp:    86500 K  Bz:   9 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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