[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M9.3    0945UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
 M1/1F    0545UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 264/215

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Dec             31 Dec             01 Jan
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   255/205            255/205            250/200

A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0446UT on 
29 Dec. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Unsettled to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 29 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      27   3644 3334
      Darwin              27   3644 3334
      Learmonth           23   3544 3333
      Canberra            26   2644 3333
      Hobart              22   2643 2233
      Casey(Ant)          32   3564 4335
      Davis(Ant)          15   3--- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 DEC : 
      Darwin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            92   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             118   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              5   1012 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Dec    12    Unsettled 
01 Jan    16    active 
COMMENT: 
A moderate (78nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
data at 0539UT on 29 Dec. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 29 12 2001 0530UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
29 Dec   165

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 112

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Dec   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
31 Dec   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
01 Jan   130    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:   10.5 p/cc  Temp:    14800 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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