[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5 13/2308UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M3.5    0916UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M4.6    1954UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 217/167

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Dec             16 Dec             17 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            210/161            200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
14/0005UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9714 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 16 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1312 2223
      Darwin               5   1211 2224
      Learmonth            5   --12 2--4
      Canberra             5   0201 2133
      Hobart               4   0211 2222
      Casey(Ant)          14   34-3 2233
      Davis(Ant)          12   2333 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2110 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
16 Dec    25    active 
17 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 14 December 
and is current for interval 15-16 December. Due to effects of 
CME associated with X6 of 13 Dec. geomagnetic fields are expected 
to be affected from late 15 to 16 Dec. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
14 Dec   164

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Dec   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Dec   120    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
17 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on 14 December 
and is current for interval 15-16 December. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 307 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    17500 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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