[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.1 12/2322UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.1    0640UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X6.4    1430UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.0    1803UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.5    2308UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 220/170

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Dec             15 Dec             16 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            220/170            210/161

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
13/0135UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2221 1012
      Darwin               1   1110 0013
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Canberra             3   2220 0012
      Hobart               2   1220 0002
      Casey(Ant)           8   2332 211-
      Davis(Ant)           8   3--3 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   2225 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
15 Dec    20    active 
16 Dec    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 11 December 
and is current for interval 13-15 December. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
16 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
13 Dec   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Dec   110    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
16 Dec   110    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on 11 December 
and is current for interval 12-14 December (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:   12.8 p/cc  Temp:    27400 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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