[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 170/124

GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Aug             25 Aug             26 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            180/133            180/133




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2121 1012
      Darwin               6   3221 2012
      Townsville           1   1010 0013
      Learmonth            5   3221 2001
      Canberra             7   3231 2013
      Hobart               4   2130 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 AUG : 
      Darwin              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            68   (Active)
      Hobart              46   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17   2234 4444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Aug    12    Unsettled 
26 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The propagation condition is expected to be normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
23 Aug   119

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Aug   130    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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