[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/-- 21/2157UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
 M1/--    1216UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 162/116

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            180/133




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2224 3323
      Darwin              13   2234 3323
      Townsville           9   1213 3323
      Learmonth           19   3235 33--
      Canberra            16   2235 3323
      Hobart              14   1225 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 AUG : 
      Darwin              43   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Canberra           101   (Major storm)
      Hobart              89   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   2123 3442     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
24 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
25 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The propagation condition is expected to be normal. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
22 Aug   119

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Aug   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060