[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 156/110

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
       X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be low. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 2112
      Darwin               4   1112 2123
      Townsville           2   0110 1111
      Learmonth            3   1012 2112
      Canberra             4   -112 2113
      Hobart               2   0011 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 AUG : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   1333 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug    12    Unsettled 
22 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 18 August and 
is current for interval 20-21 August. Magnetic field is expected 
to be quiet to unsettled. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The propagation condition is expected to be normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
20 Aug   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug   110    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
22 Aug   100    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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