[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 3 09:25:35 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.4 1014UT probable all European
X1.1 1136UT probable all European
Y1.7(X17) 2151UT Confirmed all East Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 228/178
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 210/161 200/152
COMMENT: It appears that there is a new active solar region rotating
on the disk on the south-east limb. The first X1 flare was from region
9393 (the large region in the north west quadrant), the second
flare was not optically correlated and was from the new region
on the south east limb. The very large Y1.7 (X17) flare was from region
9393. This region is now located N17W60, and the increasing westward
location tends to reduce geoeffectivness of solar events. Whilst,
this events extreme Xray magnitude implies that geoeffectiveness
is likely, other event parameters are less clear. A less than
spectacular type II was observed in association with the flare,
and no type IV followed the type II radio sweep. Due to closeness
of this event to report issue time no mass ejection imagery was available.
Also, at this stage no high energy, protons have appeared, however,
a proton event remains possible over coming hours. Further major
flares and fadeouts expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 14 4333 2234
Darwin 13 4333 2224
Townsville 21 3325 ----
Learmonth 17 5323 2-33
Canberra 11 3333 2224
Hobart 12 3333 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 APR :
Darwin 20 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 64 (Active)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 30 4563 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 13 Unsettled
04 Apr 40 Initially unsettled, then at storm levels late in UT day.
05 Apr 45 Storm levels
COMMENT: Available data suggests that shock(s) from recent activity
will arrive late on 04 Apr earl 05 Apr. Forecast of geomagnetic storm
arrival time/magnitude is difficult due to increasing westward location
of the flaring region and lack of CME confirmation. However,
storm activity now seems probable on 05 Apr. This forecast may
be revised tommorrow as further event data comes in today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : A PCA event may occur today from recent large
solar flares.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Apr Fair Fair-Poor Fair
05 Apr Poor Poor Poor
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF circuits.
Degraded HF conditions expected late 04 April and 05 April. Polar
regions may become degraded today is a proton event eventuates.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 148
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 150 near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 150 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20%
05 Apr 90 depressed 20 to 50%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 2 April
and is current for interval 2-4 April (SWFs) . Strong fadeout
observed after local dawn. Further strong short wave fadeouts
expected today. Depressed conbitions likely on 05-06 Apr if
magnetic storm activity eventuates on late 04-05 Apr from recent
flare activity.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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