[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/--    1055UT  possible   lower  European
 M4/--    1943UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
 M1/--    2259UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 258/208

GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Apr             03 Apr             04 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   235/185            225/175            205/156

COMMENT: Solar wind speed peaked at near 850km/sec around 0500UT, 
then steadily declined to 650km/sec toward end of UT day. The 
M5 xray event was not optically correlated, appearing to be associated 
with a large mass ejection off the south-east limb. Direction/location 
of CME implies non geoeffectiveness. The M5 event had a slow 
decline, however no protons have been observed following this 
flare. This event may indicate a new active solar region may 
possibly rotate onto the solar disk, on the southeast limb, in 
coming days. The M4 event appeared to be from the large solar 
region (SEC number 9393) in the north-west quadrant. Available 
data at time of issue suggests that the M4 event was not asscoiated 
with a mass ejection. Further flares and fadeouts likely. Solar 
flare activity may be sustained if a new region rotates onto 
disk as 9393 rotates off in a few days time. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 01 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       21   5542 2233
      Darwin               24   6532 2233
      Townsville           24   5542 2343
      Learmonth            24   5542 3343
      Canberra             21   5542 2233
      Hobart               21   5542 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 APR : 
      Darwin               88   (Minor storm)
      Townsville           67   (Active)
      Learmonth            61   (Active)
      Canberra             NA
      Hobart               NA
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        27
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       115
           Planetary            155   6896 7786     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Apr    18    Unsettled to active 
03 Apr    13    Unsettled 
04 Apr     6    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor           
PCA Event : No Event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected for today. Fadeouts 
can be expected on daylight HF circuits. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
01 Apr    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
      Absorption and spread F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Apr   130    near predicted monthly values 
03 Apr   140    near predicted monthly values 
04 Apr   140    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 31 March 
and is current for interval 1-2 April. Very depressed conditions 
observed over past 24 Hours in Australian region south of Brisbane. 
Northern Australian region MUFs remained near normal. Mildly 
degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local night 
hours, southern Australian region. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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