[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 161/115

GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Oct             22 Oct             23 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            175/129

COMMENT: A isolated equatorial coronal hole is currently just 
past the centre of the solar disk. Elevated solar wind speed 
conditions expected next few days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region        1   1111 0001
      Darwin                2   2111 0012
      Townsville            2   1101 1011
      Learmonth             2   2101 0101
      Canberra              2   1211 0000
      Hobart                2   1211 0001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 OCT : 
      Darwin               10   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               26   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   3332 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Oct    18    Unsettled to active 
22 Oct    20    Active 
23 Oct    21    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 21-24 October. Coronal hole activity 
expected after 21 Oct. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
22 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected 21 October 
mid to high latitudes due to coronal hole. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
20 Oct   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Oct   120    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
22 Oct   110    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
23 Oct   110    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expected Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity may 
degrade HF comms southern region 21 Oct onwards, southern Aus/NZ 
region. 


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