[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 158/112

GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Oct             21 Oct             22 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            165/119

COMMENT: A isolated equatorial coronal hole is currently near 
the centre of the solar disk. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region        7   2221 3223
      Darwin                7   2221 3223
      Townsville            7   2221 3222
      Learmonth             7   2221 3213
      Canberra              9   2232 3223
      Hobart                8   2231 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 OCT : 
      Darwin               46   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             75   (Active)
      Hobart               64   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2213 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Oct    18    Unsettled to active 
22 Oct    20    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 21-24 October. Coronal hole activity 
expected after 21 Oct. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
22 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected 21 October 
mid to high latitudes due to coronal hole. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
19 Oct   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Oct   125    near predicted monthly values 
21 Oct   120    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
22 Oct   110    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expected Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity may 
degrade HF comms southern region 21 Oct onwards, southern Aus/NZ 
region. 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060