[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 X4/2B    1648UT  probable                  all    South American/
                                                   Atlantic
 M2/1F    0308UT  possible                  lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 202/153

GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Nov             28 Nov             29 Nov
Activity     High               Moderate to high   Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            205/156            200/152


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 26 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       29   2353 5455
      Darwin               26   2353 4455
      Townsville           29   2353 5455
      Learmonth            32   235- 5455
      Canberra             28   1253 5455
      Hobart               20   1343 4444
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 NOV : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             12   (Quiet)
      Hobart               20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   3301 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Nov    50    Storm levels 
28 Nov    60    Storm levels 
29 Nov    40    Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 24 November 
and is current for interval 26-28 November. Minor storm conditions 
were observed after 0600UT when the first of series of shock 
passed the Earth. Storm to minor storm conditions are likely 
from the 27 Nov till 29 Nov after the anticipated arrival of 
several shocks associated with CMEs observed following further 
flares on the 25 and 26 Nov with an impressive full halo CME 
observed in association with a long duration C3 flare after 0634UT 
on the 26 Nov. A now centrally located coronal hole may further 
influence geomagnetic conditions over the following days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : Began 24 11 2000 1605UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair           Poor          
28 Nov      Fair           Fair           Poor          
29 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair           Poor          
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs by 20 to 30% are likely from the 27 Nov 
till 29 Nov after the anticipated arrival of several shocks associated 
with CMEs observed following further flares on the 25 and 26 
Nov. SWFs are possible. PCA still in progress. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 Nov   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% at the start of the UT day.
      Mask by PCA afterwards.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Nov   110    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
28 Nov   100    about 30% below predicted monthly values 
29 Nov   110    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on 24 November 
and is current for interval 26-28 November. Although several 
shocks associated with the flare and CMEs observed over the 23-25 
periods reached the Earth, ionospheric conditions stay at normal 
to enhanced levels on the 26 Nov as IMF Bz stayed positive after 
the shock arrivals. Depressed ionospheric conditions by 20% to 
30% are anticipated from the 27 Nov till 29 Nov after the expected 
arrival of several shocks associated with CMEs observed following 
further flares on the 25 and 26 Nov. 


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