[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/2N 24/2159UT  probable                  all    East Pacific/
                                                   North American
 M8/-- 25/0129UT  probable                  lower  East Australian/
						   West Pacific
 M3/2N    0920UT  possible                  lower  Mid East/Indian
 X2/2B    1833UT  probable                  all    Central Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 202/153

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     High               Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            195/147            195/147

COMMENT: Region 9236 has become magnetically complex over the 
24 Nov and was the sources of several M and X flares with associated 
type II sweeps CMEs. This region is likely to remain active over 
the following days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   3220 0122
      Darwin                7   3221 0133
      Townsville            6   3221 1121
      Learmonth             5   3210 0222
      Canberra              6   3220 0133
      Hobart                6   3220 1123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 NOV : 
      Darwin                8   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   1222 1333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov    60    Storm levels 
27 Nov    40    Minor storm 
28 Nov    40    Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 24 November 
and is current for interval 26-28 November. Unsettled conditions 
were observed at the start of the UT day on the 25 Nov due to 
a coronal hole. Storm to minor storm conditions are likely from 
the 26 Nov till 28 Nov after the anticipated arrival of several 
shocks associated with CMEs observed following a series of energetic 
flares on the 23, 24 and 25 Nov. A now centrally located coronal 
hole may further influence geomagnetic conditions over the next 
three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 0010UT 13/11, Ended at 1535UT 24/11
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Fair           Fair           Poor          
27 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair           Poor          
28 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair           Poor          
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs by 20 to 30% are likely from the 26 Nov 
till 28 Nov after the anticipated arrival of several shocks associated 
with CMEs observed following a series of energetic flares on 
the 23, 24 and 25 Nov. SWFa are probable. PCA still in progress. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
25 Nov   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov   120    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
27 Nov   100    about 30% below predicted monthly values 
28 Nov   100    about 30% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on 24 November 
and is current for interval 26-28 November. Depressed ionospheric 
conditions by 10% to 30% are likely from the 26 Nov till 28 Nov 
after the anticipated arrival of several shocks associated with 
CMEs observed following a series of energetic flares on the 23, 
24 and 25 Nov. 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060