[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 205/156

GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Nov             25 Nov             26 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            210/161            205/156

COMMENT: 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   2212 1221
      Darwin                5   2212 12--
      Townsville            8   3212 123-
      Learmonth             6   3212 1212
      Canberra              5   2212 1221
      Hobart                4   1212 2110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 NOV : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2112 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Nov     7    Quiet 
25 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Nov    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 51 was issued on 23 November 
and is current for interval 26-28 November. Active geomagnetic 
conditions are expected for the 26 Nov following the anticipated 
arrival of a shock associated with a CME and long duration C7 
flare observed on the 23 Nov after 1930 UT. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs are likely on the 26 Nov after the anticipated 
arrival of a shock associated with a CME and C7 flare observed 
on the 23 Nov at 1930 UT. SWFs are possible over the next following 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
23 Nov   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Nov   140    near predicted monthly values 
25 Nov   140    near predicted monthly values 
26 Nov   130    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 78 was issued on 23 November 
and is current for interval 26-28 November. Mildly depressed 
ionospheric conditions are likely on the 26 Nov after the anticipated 
arrival of a shock associated with a CME and flare observed on 
the 23 Nov at around 1930UT. 


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