[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N 23/2328UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 X2/3B 24/0502UT  probable   all    Western Australian/Indian 
 X2/2B    1513UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic
 X1/-  24/2159UT  probable   all    East Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 197/149

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     High               High               Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            200/152            195/147

COMMENT: Region 9236 has become magnetically complex over the 
24 Nov and was the sources of two M1 and three X flares with 
associated type II sweeps. This region is likely to remain active 
over the following days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 24 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       12   1423 2334
      Darwin               26   -523 35--
      Townsville           12   1423 2333
      Learmonth            12   2422 2333
      Canberra             12   1423 2334
      Hobart                9   1322 2334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 NOV : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart                4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   1312 3321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active 
26 Nov    60    Storm levels 
27 Nov    40    Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 24 November 
and is current for interval 26-28 November. Quiet to active conditions 
were observed on the 24 Nov due to coronal hole. Storm to minor 
storm conditions are likely from the 26 Nov till 28 Nov after 
the anticipated arrival of several shocks associated with CMEs, 
two M1 observed on the 23 Nov at 1930 and 2328 UT and three X 
flares observed 24 Nov at around 1930, 0502, 1513 and 2143UT. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 0010UT 13/11, Ended at 1535UT 24/11
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
26 Nov      Fair           Fair           Poor          
27 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair           Poor          
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs by 20 to 30% are likely from the 26 Nov 
till 28 Nov after the anticipated arrival of several shocks associated 
with CMEs, two M1 observed on the 23 Nov at 1930 and 2328 UT 
and three X flares observed 24 Nov at around 1930, 0502, 1513 
and 2143UT. SWFS are probable over the next following days. PCA 
in progress. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
24 Nov   139

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
      PCA in propgress after 1520 UT.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov   140    near predicted monthly values 
26 Nov   100    about 30% below predicted monthly values 
27 Nov   110    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on 24 November 
and is current for interval 26-28 November. Depressed ionospheric 
conditions by 20% to 30% are likely from the 26 Nov till 28 Nov 
after the anticipated arrival of several shocks associated with 
CMEs, two M1 observed on the 23 Nov at 1930 and 2328 UT and three 
X flares observed 24 Nov at around 1930, 0502, 1513 and 2143UT. 


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