[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 190/143

GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Dec             24 Dec             25 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            190/143


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   1211 2234
      Darwin                6   2210 2235
      Townsville           14   130- ----
      Learmonth             4   2111 2124
      Canberra              5   1220 2225
      Hobart                7   1321 2224
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0003 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Dec    12    Unsettled 
24 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
25 Dec    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 22 December 
and is current for interval 23-25 December. IMF Bz turned negative 
(-10 nT) after 1830UT on the 22 DEC, unsettled to active conditions 
are likely to follow on 23 DEC. A small and centrally located 
coronal hole has now passed the Sun central meridian. Unsettled 
to active conditions are expected to continue over the next two 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: MUFs should should remain near monthly predicted values 
over the next few days, with a chance of mild depressions due 
to enhanced geomagnetic conditions triggered by a small coronal 
hole. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
22 Dec   156

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Dec   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
24 Dec   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
25 Dec   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal the 
following days with a chance of mild depressions triggered by 
enhanced geomagnetic activity due to a coronal hole. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060