[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 04 February 24 issued 2331 UT on 04 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
04 Feb   145    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    1153UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.5    1638UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.3    1713UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.1    1829UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.2    2057UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M2.1    2228UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M2.7    2237UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      144
Feb      108
Mar      108


2. FORECAST (05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
05 Feb   140    Normal-fair      About 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
06 Feb   140    Normal           About 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values    
07 Feb   140    Normal           About 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 12 was issued 
on 2 February and is current for 4-5 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 04-Feb were near predicted monthly values to 
15% enhanced in the Australian region. A very brief minor partial 
fadeout was observed at east coast sites at 04/2235-2240UT in 
association withe M2.7 flare, with only lower HF frequencies 
impacted. MUFs are expected to be generally near predicted monthly 
values to 15% enhanced. Mild depressions are no longer expected 
for the southern Australian region on 05-Feb. There is an increased 
chance for HF fadeouts.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au