[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 10 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 10 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (10 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
10 May   119    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.2    1421UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1435UT 08/05, Ended at 1220UT 09/05
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 05 2023 2325UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      120
May      87
Jun      88


2. FORECAST (11 MAY - 13 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
11 May   100    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced
12 May    85    Fair-poor        Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% depressed    
13 May    80    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% depressed   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 
9 May and is current for 9-11 May. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 45 was issued on 9 May and is current for 11-12 May. 
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-May were enhanced 
15-15% across the Australian region. Spread-F was observed at 
Hobart during local night hours. Scintillation was observed at 
Weipa from 10/1403-1420UT. MUFs are expected to continue to be 
enhanced by 15% over UT day 11-May, then tend towards near predicted 
values to 20% depressed over 12-13 May due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity on 12-May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au