[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 09 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 09 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
09 May   114    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M6.5    0354UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    0613UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.3    1020UT  possible   lower  European
  M4.2    1858UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M5.0    2052UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1220UT 08/05, Ended at 1405UT 08/05
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1435UT 08/05, Ended at 1220UT 09/05

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      120
May      87
Jun      88


2. FORECAST (10 MAY - 12 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
10 May   100    Fair             Near predicted monthly values
11 May    85    Fair-poor        Near predicted monthly values    
12 May    85    Fair             Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 
9 May and is current for 9-11 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 9-May were mostly near predicted monthly values 
in the Northern Australian region, with enhancements of up to 
20% observed in the Southern Australian region. Spread-F was 
observed at Darwin during local night. Sporadic E was observed 
at Brisbane, Canberra and Norfolk Island. MUFs are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed on 10-May 
due to geomagnetic activity from a recent CME impact. Depressions 
of up to 20% are expected over 11-12 May due to geomagnetic activity 
from a recent CME impact and an anticipated impact on 11-May. 
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au