[Ips-dhfpr] SWS Daily HF Prop Report - 30 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 30 Oct 2021

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (30 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
30 Oct    40    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1730UT 28/10, Ended at 1335UT 30/10
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1435UT 30/10, Ended at 1505UT 30/10
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2050UT 30/10, Ended at 2120UT 30/10
 and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1625UT 28/10, Ended at 0405UT 30/10

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33


2. FORECAST (31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
31 Oct     0    Fair-poor        Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 15 to 25%
01 Nov     0    Fair-poor        Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20%    
02 Nov    20    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 28 
October and is current for 29-31 Oct. SWS Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 28 was issued on 29 October and is current for 30-31 
Oct. MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 30 October were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Moderate enhancements were 
observed in the Cocos Island region. Some mild enhancements were 
observed in the the Northern Australian region during the local 
night. Also there were some mild depressions in the Niue Island 
region during the local day. Mild to moderate MUF depressions 
are likely on UT days 31 October to 1 November, due to the predicted 
increase in geomagnetic activity. Then MUFs are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day 2 November. Shortwave 
fadeouts may happen due to possible M-class flares.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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