[Ips-dhfpr] SWS Daily HF Prop Report - 29 October 21 issued 2333 UT on 29 Oct 2021

[rwc]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (29 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
29 Oct    37    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    0243UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 10 2021 0430UT and is in progress
 and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 10 2021 0325UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33


2. FORECAST (30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
30 Oct    15    Poor             Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values
31 Oct     0    Fair-poor        Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 15 to 25%    
01 Nov    10    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20%   

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 28 
October and is current for 29-31 Oct. SWS Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 28 was issued on 29 October and is current for 30-31 
Oct. MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 October were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild enhancements were 
observed in the Cocos Island region during the local night. Some 
moderate enhancements were observed in the the Niue Island region 
during the local day. Mild to moderate MUF depressions are likely 
on UT days 30 October to 1 November, due to the predicted increase 
in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts may happen due to 
possible M-class flares.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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