[Ips-dhfpr] SWS Daily HF Prop Report - 15 October 16 issued 2342 UT on 15 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 16 10:42:23 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Oct     3    Poor-fair      

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      30
Oct      30
Nov      30


2. FORECAST (16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Oct    10    Poor-fair        Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 20 to 30%
17 Oct    15    Fair-normal      Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20%    
18 Oct    15    Fair-normal      Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20%   

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 15 October 
and is current for 15-16 Oct. Improved MUFs as the ionosphere 
slowly replenishes from the severe storm associated with the 
09 Oct CME. Conditions for HF radio propagation were depressed 
throughout the Australian region during the early hours of 14 
Oct UT. Real time T indices decreased to -53 at some low latitude 
locations. As the day progressed, support for radio wave propagation 
recovered at most mid-latitude stations. Ionospheric recovery 
after recent sever geomagnetic storm is expected to continue 
over the next three days. MUFs are expected to remain degraded 
during the recovery phase in response to the forecasted Active 
conditions.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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