[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 16 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 Oct 2015

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (16 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
16 Oct    25    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1 15/2332UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0617UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68


2. FORECAST (17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
17 Oct    20    Normal-fair      5 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
18 Oct    25    Normal-fair      5 to 10% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
19 Oct    30    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 15 October 
and is current for 16-18 Oct. Minor to mild MUF depressions and 
degradations in HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions 
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
on UT day 17 October due to continued expected slight rise in 
geomagnetic activity levels during this period and low levels 
of ionising radiation. Slight relative improvements in HF conditions 
may be possible on 18 and 19 October as the geomagnetic activity 
is expected to remain at Quiet levels on these days. However, 
due to continued low levels of ionising radiation, HF conditions 
may not show significant improvements even on 18 and 19 October.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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