[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 15 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 16 10:30:36 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Oct     6    Fair           

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68


2. FORECAST (16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Oct     6    Fair             20 to 40% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
17 Oct    10    Normal-fair      10 to 30% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
18 Oct    12    Normal-fair      5 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values   

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions over the last 
24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on UT day 
16 October due to continued expected rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels during this period and low levels of ionising radiation. 
Slight relative improvements in HF conditions may be possible 
on 17 and 18 October as the geomagnetic activity is expected 
to slowly decline over this period. However, due to continued 
low levels of ionising radiation, HF conditions may not show 
significant improvements even on 17 and 18 October.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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