[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 02 November 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Nov 2015

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (02 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
02 Nov    46    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% 
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      37
Nov      66
Dec      65


2. FORECAST (03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
03 Nov    35    Fair-poor        15 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
04 Nov    35    Poor             15 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
05 Nov    40    Poor-fair        Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 2 November 
and is current for 3-5 Nov. Observed MUF's for the UT day 02 
Nov were moderately depressed compared to the predicted monthly 
values. There is a chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts for 
the next two day due to active sunspot region. Strong geomagnetic 
activity forecasted for 3 and 4 Nov are expected to caused MUF 
degradation. MUF depression are expected to occur first (3 Nov) 
in the high latitude regions and then gradually expand into mid-latitude 
regions within 24 hours. Depressed conditions are expected to 
last for few days (3-5 Nov). Equatorial regions may notice a 
minor improvement in HF conditions due to possible enhancements 
in charge densities. The high latitude ionisations are expected 
to shift into low latitudes due to stronger equatorward motions 
which are expected during geomagnetic storms.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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