[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 21 June 15 issued 2357 UT on 21 Jun 2015

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (21 JUNE) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
21 Jun    60    Fair           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    0145UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.6    0240UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.8    0944UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    1822UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 22 06 2015 0620UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84


2. FORECAST (22 JUNE - 24 JUNE)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
22 Jun    50    Fair-poor        15 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
23 Jun    40    Poor             20 to 30% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
24 Jun    50    Fair             15 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values   

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 17 was issued 
on 20 June and is current for 21-24 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions 
have been observed during 21 June with Spread-F and sporadic-E 
conditions observed at some stations, possibly further degrading 
COMMS. Mostly fair to poor conditions are expected for 22 June 
as geomagnetic activity levels increase during the day. Degraded 
COMMS are expected to continue into 23 June with the anticipated 
continuing elevated geomagnetic activity.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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