[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 22 June 15 issued 2356 UT on 22 Jun 2015

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (22 JUNE) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
22 Jun    55    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.6    1804UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M6.5    1825UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 22 06 2015 0620UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84


2. FORECAST (23 JUNE - 25 JUNE)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
23 Jun    40    Fair             20 to 30% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
24 Jun    45    Fair             20 to 30% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
25 Jun    50    Normal           15 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values   

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 17 was issued 
on 20 June and is current for 21-24 Jun. IPS SWF HF Communications 
Warning 18 was issued on 22 June and is current for 22-23 Jun. 
Degraded HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours due to 
recent CME activity resulting in storm level geomagnetic conditions 
and a polar cap absorption event which is currently in progress. 
Depressed MUF's of 20%-30% expected for low to mid latitude station 
over the next 24-48 hours. Poor ionospheric support expected 
high latitudes over the next 3 days.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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