[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 22 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 22 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (22 DECEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
22 Dec    24    Poor           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    0336UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      63
Jan      63


2. FORECAST (23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
23 Dec    50    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec    60    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
25 Dec    65    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on 22 December 
and is current for 22-23 Dec. IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 
83 was issued on 22 December and is current for 22-24 Dec. Observed 
MUF's for the UT day 22 Dec were about 40 points below the predicted 
monthly values. There is a chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts 
for the next two days due to flaring potential from active sunspot 
regions (Region 2472 and 2473). Strong geomagnetic activity associated 
with 19th December CME has caused this MUF degradation. The 2-day 
outlook (23-24 Dec) is MUFs are expected to trend gradually towards 
the predicted monthly values. A delayed recovery is expected 
in the high latitude regions.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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