[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 21 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 21 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (21 DECEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
21 Dec   -20    Poor           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.7    0104UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    1020UT  possible   lower  European

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 45% through the day
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 55% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% at other times
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      63
Jan      63


2. FORECAST (22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
22 Dec    30    Poor-fair        15 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
23 Dec    50    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values    
24 Dec    60    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 21 Dec were about 80 points 
below the predicted monthly values. There is a chance of isolated 
shortwave fadeouts for the next two days due to flaring potential 
from active sunspot regions (Region 2472 and 2473). Strong geomagnetic 
activity during the last 24 hours has caused this MUF degradation. 
Depressed MUF conditions are expected to last for few days (22-23 
Dec) and then gradually return to near monthly predicted values.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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