[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 01 January 14 issued 2331 UT on 01 Jan 2014

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (01 JANUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
01 Jan   106    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M9.9    1852UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 12 2013 1905UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      130
Jan      71
Feb      70


2. FORECAST (02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
02 Jan    90    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 5 to 20%
03 Jan   120    Normal           Near predicted monthly values    
04 Jan   120    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 1 was issued 
on 31 December and is current for 2 Jan only. Minor to moderate 
MUF enhancements were observed over the last 24 hours in the 
Aus/NZ regions. Periods of sporadic E were also observed. The 
M6 flare of 31 December and M9.9 flare of 01 January caused short 
wave fadeouts. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions 
and MUF depressions may be expected in this region on 02 January 
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this 
day. HF conditions may slowly recover to mostly normal levels 
on 03 and 04 January.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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