[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 22 February 14 issued 2353 UT on 22 Feb 2014

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (22 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
22 Feb    90    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 02 2014 0015UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      75


2. FORECAST (23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
23 Feb    95    Normal-fair      Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
24 Feb   100    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
25 Feb   100    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 22 February 
and is current for 22-23 Feb. Observed MUF's for Northern AUS 
regions ranged from near monthly normal values to enhanced during 
local day and night over the last 24 hours. MUF's ranging from 
near predicted monthly values to depressed by 15% observed for 
Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions with notable disturbed 
periods for Antarctic regions due to recent elevated geomagnetic 
activity. MUF's are expected to range from near monthly predicted 
values to enhanced by ~15% for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions 
over the 3 days. Ionospheric support is expected to recover for 
Southern AUS/NZ regions over the next 24 hours with near predicted 
monthly values and possible enhanced conditions for 24Feb-25Feb. 
Slight chance of depressed conditions during local night for 
Southern AUS/NZ regions over the next 24 hours should CME arrivals 
and increased geomagnetic activity eventuate. Similar outlook 
for Antarctic regions for the next 3 days. Further short-wave 
fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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