[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 20 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Nov 2013

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (20 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
20 Nov   150    Strongly enhanced         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available but probably strongly enhanced.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-45% for most of the day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 10-35% for most of the day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
      Enhanced up to 50% during some hours. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 10-60% at most stations.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69


2. FORECAST (21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions         MUFs                              
21 Nov   135    Strongly enhanced  Enhanced by 15-40% above predicted 
                                   monthly values
22 Nov   135    Strongly enhanced  Enhanced by 15-40% above predicted 
                                   monthly values    
23 Nov   130    Enhanced           Enhanced by 15-30% above predicted 
                                   monthly values   

COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was strongly enhanced 
for most of the day at most Australian stations during 20 Nov. 
The preliminary observed T index was close to 150, far above 
the predicted monthly value of 71. The propagation support is 
expected to remain strongly enhanced in comming days, but eventually 
weaken as the ionosphere begins to respond to the gradual decline 
in solar UV flux. There is a declining chance of a SWF due to 
an M-class solar flare during the next 48 hours.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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