[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 19 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2013

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (19 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
19 Nov   137    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.0    1026UT  probable   all    European

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69


2. FORECAST (20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
20 Nov   130    Normal           Near to 15-40% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
21 Nov   125    Normal           Near to 15-30% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
22 Nov   125    Normal           Near to 15-20% above predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was strongly enhanced 
for most of the day at most Australian stations during 19 Nov. 
The preliminary observed T index was close to 140, far above 
the predicted monthly value of 71. The propagation support is 
expected to remain strongly enhanced in comming days, but eventually 
weaken as the ionosphere begins to respond to the gradual decline 
in solar UV flux. A SWF due to an M-class flare is possible during 
the next 2-3 days.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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