[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 24 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jul 2013

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (24 JULY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
24 Jul    64    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69


2. FORECAST (25 JULY - 27 JULY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
25 Jul    65    Normal           Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 0 to 10%
26 Jul    55    Fair             0 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
27 Jul    55    Normal-fair      0 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values   

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values for 24 hour 
averages across the region during daylight hours over the last 
24 hours with the daily T index slightly below predicted monthly 
average. However there was significant hourly variability with 
night-time MUFs depressed across northern regions 20-35%. Significant 
wave activity was observed causing hourly variability. Strong 
Spread-F evident in the West. Expect mostly normal average HF 
conditions for most of 25-Jul, with MUFs perhaps slightly below 
average. There should be Unsettled-Active geomagnetic activity 
due to high solar wind speed from a recurrent coronal hole CH576, 
with possible peak Minor Storm (depending on Interplanetary Magnetic 
field north-south orientation) from late on 25-Jul for ~2 days, 
probably causing MUF depressions up to 20% and larger hourly 
MUF variations.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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