[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 18 October 12 issued 2310 UT on 18 Oct 2012

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (18 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
18 Oct   106    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  81


2. FORECAST (19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
19 Oct   100    Normal           0 to 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
20 Oct   100    Normal           0 to 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values    
21 Oct   100    Normal           0 to 15% above predicted monthly 
                                 values   

COMMENT: MUFs were again enhanced above predicted monthly values 
due to enhanced EUV flux from 9 spot groups on the solar disc 
with most likely to remain for the next 3 days. Despite the large 
number of spot groups the propensity for M/X flares and shortwave 
fadeouts is low (<10%). Very high MUF variability at low latitudes 
over 18-Oct may have been due to geomagnetic activity caused 
by a high speed solar wind speed stream from a coronal hole, 
expected to pass early 19th Oct but then pick up again late in 
the UT day as a solar sector boundary passes.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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