[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 09 November 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
09 Nov    18    Fair           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M8.9    1719UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 11 2004 1915UT and is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35
2. FORECAST (10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
10 Nov    20    Poor             depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
11 Nov    25    Poor             depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
12 Nov    40    Fair             depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 9 November 
and is current for interval 9-11 November. Depressed HF conditions 
forecast for the next 24 due to the strong geomagnetic storm 
levels that have been observed. These conditions are expected 
to continue into and after 11Nov when another shock front arrival 
is expected from a M8.9-Class flare at 1700UT. Depressed conditions 
expected for southern Aus/NZ regions. 
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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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