[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 08 November 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (08 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
08 Nov    78    Fair           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M2.3/1N    1549UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 11 2004 1915UT and is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35
2. FORECAST (09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
09 Nov    20    Poor             depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
10 Nov    30    Fair             depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
11 Nov    50    Normal-Fair      Near predicted monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 8 November 
and is current for interval 8-10 November. Disturbed ionospheric
conditions were observed over the last 24hours with highly variable
MUF's and ionospheric heights. Depressed HF conditions forecast for
the next 24-36hrs due to the anticipated arrival of 07Nova X2.0 class
flare's shock fronts. A proton event is also still in progress and
will affect transpolar communications. Depressed conditions expected
for all Aus/NZ regions. 
----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

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