[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 06 November 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (06 NOVEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
06 Nov    77    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M9/2N    0034UT  probable   lower  West Pacific
 M1/--    1953UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35
2. FORECAST (07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
07 Nov    65    Normal-Fair      near predicted monthly values 
08 Nov    50    Fair             near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20%     
09 Nov    10    Fair-Poor        about 30% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 5 November 
and is current for interval 5-7 November (SWFs) . Normal HF conditions 
forecast for the next 24hrs but with an expected degradation 
in conditions occuring within this period due to the arrival 
of shock fronts from recent CME activity. Depressed conditions 
possible for Southern Aus/NZ regions. Degraded conditions possible 
from 08/11 onwards with expected arrival of a significant M9.3 
Class event an associated CME from 0045UT 06/11. 
----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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