[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 14 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Oct    71    Normal-fair    

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values, depressed 15-20%
      late in UT day. Spread F observed.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55
2. FORECAST (15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Oct    20    Poor-Fair        depressed 10 to 25% (southern Aus/NZ)
15 Oct    50    Fair-Normal      near predicted monthly values (north Aus)
16 Oct    30    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
17 Oct    40    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on 12 October 
and is current for interval 15-16 October. Depressed conditions 
observed after local dawn this morning southern Aus/NZ region. 
Northern Aus region MUFs (north of Brisbane) are showing a much 
less depression response to overnight geomagnetic activity, induced 
by a solar coronal hole high speed wind stream, hence there are 
two T indices forecast for today with a T index of 50 for northern 
Aus region, and a Tindex of 20 for southern Aus/NZ region. If 
you are communicating from one region to another it is suggested 
to use the lower of the two indices. Coronal hole induced geomagnetic 
activity expected next few days which will probably keep southern 
Aus/NZ region MUfs lower than normal possibly until 18 Oct. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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