[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 15 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Oct    24    Poor-fair      

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 20% 03-06UT, at Port Moresby.
      Vanimo MUFs remained near predicted monthly values.
      Near predicted monthly values after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Variable conditions. MUFs ar Darwin depressed
      40% 03-06 UT and 20% until 10 UT.
      Townsville enhanced 30% 01-03UT, depressed 20%
      04-05UT. Learmonth enhanced 30% 06-07UT, depressed
      30% 03-05UT and 09-12 UT.
      15% depressed to near normal after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55
2. FORECAST (16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Oct    30    Fair-normal      depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
17 Oct    40    Fair-normal      depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
18 Oct    45    Fair-normal      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on 12 October 
and is current for interval 15-16 October. Strong depression 
observed in southern Aus/NZ region MUFs during local day yesterday. 
Northern region MUFs were not as immune as predicted, with highly 
variable MUFs observed after 02UT 15 Oct. Southern region MUFs 
(with the exception of Christchurch NZ) expected to again be 
depressed during daylight hours today. Northern region MUFs may 
be initially depressed but should recover quickly as the day 
progresses. Generally lower than normal MUFs are expected over 
the next few days, particularly for southern Aus region due to 
expected sustained geomagnetic activity from a broad coronal 
hole. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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