[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 29 May 03
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 30 09:38:16 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (29 MAY)
Date T index Conditions
29 May 73 Normal-poor
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.1/2B 0105UT probable all West Pacific
M1.5/1F 0217UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.7/1N 1937UT possible lower East Pacific/
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night,
Enhanced by 70% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Darwin MUfs were enhanced over 100% between 07 and 11 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 29 05 2003 0155UT and is in progress
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 72
2. FORECAST (30 MAY - 01 JUNE)
Date T index Conditions MUFs
30 May 70 Fair-Normal near predicted monthly values (Northern Aus)
30 May 40 Fair-poor depressed 10 to 30% (Southern Aus/NZ)
31 May 30 Fair-poor near predicted monthly values/depressed
10 to 30%
01 Jun 60 Fair depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 28 May
and is current for interval 28-30 May. Geomagnetic storm activity
arrived earlier than expected, with storm onset late on 29 May.
Stations south of Townsville, are depressed by up to 30% after
local dawn this morning. Depressed conditins expected to continue
for most of local day, with a recovering trend. Further degraded
and depressed conditions are expected on 31 May/01 June, due
to the anticipated arrival of another mass ejection associated
with an X1 flare early on 29 May. Mid to high latitude HF comms
are expected to be very degraded over the next two days. Shortwave
fadeouts likely on HF cicuits.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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