[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 29 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (29 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
29 May    73    Normal-poor    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
X1.1/2B    0105UT  probable   all    West Pacific
M1.5/1F    0217UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
M2.7/1N    1937UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night,
     Enhanced by 70% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Darwin MUfs were enhanced over 100% between 07 and 11 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 29 05 2003 0155UT and is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72
2. FORECAST (30 MAY - 01 JUNE)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
30 May    70    Fair-Normal      near predicted monthly values (Northern Aus)
30 May    40    Fair-poor        depressed 10 to 30% (Southern Aus/NZ)
31 May    30    Fair-poor        near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 30%     
01 Jun    60    Fair             depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 28 May 
and is current for interval 28-30 May. Geomagnetic storm activity 
arrived earlier than expected, with storm onset late on 29 May. 
Stations south of Townsville, are depressed by up to 30% after 
local dawn this morning. Depressed conditins expected to continue 
for most of local day, with a recovering trend. Further degraded 
and depressed conditions are expected on 31 May/01 June, due 
to the anticipated arrival of another mass ejection associated 
with an X1 flare early on 29 May. Mid to high latitude HF comms 
are expected to be very degraded over the next two days. Shortwave
fadeouts likely on HF cicuits.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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