[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 28 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (28 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
28 May    83    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
X1.3/2B 27/2307UT  Confirmed  lower  West Pacific (2305-2330)
  X3.6     0027UT  Confirmed  all    West Pacific (0025-0100)


MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


PCA Event : No event. However, 10MeV solar proton flux levels 
	    currently just below event thresholds. PCA possible
            later today. Elevated proton flux followed X class
	    solar flares.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72
2. FORECAST (29 MAY - 31 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
29 May    60    Normal-fair      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
30 May    40    Fair-Poor        near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 20%     
31 May    30    Poor-Fair        depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 28 May 
and is current for interval 28-30 May. HF conditions are expected 
to be mildly depressed/degraded for southern regions after local 
dawn this morning. Northern Aus region MUFs currently unaffected 
and near predicted monthly values. However, a much stronger period 
of depression and degradation is expected on 30/31 May due to 
anticipated geomagnetic activity from recent coronal mass ejections 
associated with X class flares. This depression/degradation may 
extend to lower latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts were observed in 
association with the X class flares. Increased absorption is likely
for transpolar HF circuits over next 24 hours.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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