Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Experimental Solar Wind Precursor Alert
This product is based on results from a preliminary study on "Forecasting Geomagnetic Storms Using Energetic Ion Enhancements" by Z.Smith (SEC, Boulder Co, USA) and W. Murtagh (USAF, Boulder Co, USA).
The prelimary study found that energetic ion enhancements in the ACE satellites solar wind EPAM proton data, in the energy range 47-65keV, with a flux level greater than 1x10^4 particles/(cm2.sec.sterad.Mev), provided a possible useful precursor to solar wind shocks and geomagnetic storm activity. The hopeful alert issuing sequence would be, IPS ACE precursor EPAM alert, IPS ACE shock alert, then IPS IPSNET sudden impulse alert.
This experimental service monitors the ACE EPAM proton data channel, and provides an email notification when the flux levels exceeds 1x10^4, 1x10^5 and 1x10^6 particles/(cm2.sec.sterad.Mev). Alert issuing is suppressed during 100MeV proton events, as the ACE satllite solar wind detector is saturated by strong proton events.
You can view plots and data of the US ACE satellite solar wind measurents at: ACE Real Time Solar Wind
NOTE: Due to ACE data now being received intermittently, solar win ion precursor events may be missed due to these data gaps.
SWS Solar Precursor Alerts are an automated experimental product and
false alarms and missed events are possible. Please read our product
disclaimer on the Home Page before using this alert.
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