[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (05 January 24) issued 0046 UT on 05 Jan 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 05 JANUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (29 DECEMBER - 04 JANUARY)
Date     29    30    31    01    02    03    04
10cm    143   140   146   136   142   140   126
AFr       6     4     2     6     8     8  (  5)
Aaus     10     6     3     8     7    10  (  2)
T       147   128   135   109   104   134   119

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

29 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day and night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30-35% during local day and night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

31 Dec 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.0 at 1913UT, 
              and an X5.0 at 2155UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.3 at 0854UT, and an M4.7 at 
              1225UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

02 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 1831UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% for the first half of local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

03 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 03 Jan, a weak (16nT) impulse 
was observed at 0536UT and a weak (10nT) impulse was observed 
at 1509UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0116UT, and an M3.8 at 
              0155UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (05 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level, with a chance of
R2 flares this week. 

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected this week.

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
in the Australian region.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au