[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (23 February 24) issued 0112 UT on 23 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 23 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (16 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY)
Date     16    17    18    19    20    21    22
10cm    169   170   157   152   153   170   173
AFr       3     4     4     1     5     3  (  6)
Aaus      4     2     2     0     4     3  (  4)
T       154   147   143   151   148   127   145

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

16 Feb 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.5 at 0251UT, an X2.5 at 0653UT, 
              and an M3.0 at 2209UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

17 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M3.0 at 2209UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Feb 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15%. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Feb 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Feb 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

21 Feb 
Solar:        R3, with an X1.9 at 2307UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Feb 
Solar:        R3, with an X1.6 at 0632UT, 
              an M4.7 at 2046UT, and an X6.3 at 2234UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Comment: A strong HF fadeout was observed during the
interval 22/2221-2358UT in association with the
X6.3 flare on 22-Feb. The X1 flares were not associated
with CMEs. Space based coronagraph imagery will be checked
as they become available for the M4 and X6 flare events.
 
2. FORECAST (23 FEBRUARY - 29 FEBRUARY)
Solar: 
R2-R3. Solar region AR3590 currently located in the
north east solar quadrant is a large complex and 
flare active solar region. Further flare activity is 
expected from this solar region. A previously flaring 
solar region has returned to the south east solar limb 
and may contribute to current flare activity. There is an 
increased risk of significant CME activity this week. 
A small isolated coronal hole is currently just 
east of the solar central meridian.

Geomagnetic:  
G1 conditions expected from late 24-Feb to mid 25-Feb
due to the anticipated arrival of a partially Earth directed 
CME associated with a recent solar filament eruption. A coronal hole
may moderately increase solar wind speed 25-26 Feb, inducing
G0-G1 conditions. There is an increased risk of CME induced
geomagnetic activity this week.

Frequencies:  
Southern Australian region MUFs are expected to become 
depressed 15% on 25-Feb in association with geomagnetic 
activity from a partially Earth directed CME.  Northern 
Australian region MUFs are expected to remain near normal. 
At this stage MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced on other days.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au