[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (27 October 23) issued 0034 UT on 27 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 27 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (20 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER)
Date     20    21    22    23    24    25    26
10cm    126   123   119   122   121   126   126
AFr       8    13     7     2     2     3  ( 15)
Aaus      6     8     5     1     4     3  ( 16)
T       106   138   107   112   126   128   133

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

20 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

22 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 2324UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (27 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER)
Solar: 
R0-R1 level radio blackouts are possible throughout the week.

Geomagnetic:  
Isolated periods of G1 are possible early in the UT day 27-Oct. Further G1
periods are possible from around 31-Oct.

Frequencies:  
MUFs may be depressed by 10-20% over 27-28 Oct, before recovering to near
predicted values on 29-Oct. Further depressions of 10-20% are possible over
01-02 Nov. 


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au