[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (13 October 23) issued 0041 UT on 13 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 13 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (06 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER)
Date     06    07    08    09    10    11    12
10cm    155   157   157   166   164   158   157
AFr       7     0     0     0     0     3  (  6)
Aaus      8     3     6     6     2     2  (  3)
T       152   140   142   139   129   141   138

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

06 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local day and after local dawn.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day and night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.7 at 1806UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% during local day and after local dawn.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

08 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.6 at 0209UT, and an M2.3 at 
              1217UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-30% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

12 Oct 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0458UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30-35% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (13 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels this week. If AR3435
returns on 13-Oct, R2 level flaring is possible. 

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected. 

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au