[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (31 March 23) issued 0244 UT on 31 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 31 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (24 MARCH - 30 MARCH)
Date     24    25    26    27    28    29    30
10cm    158   160   159   158   159   148   140
AFr      40    12     6     2     4     4  ( 13)
Aaus     26     9     6     1     4     3  ( 16)
T        89   139   137   137   146   137   151

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

24 Mar 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G2
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 60% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 35% over the UT day.

25 Mar 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day and after local dawn.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Mar 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 110% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40-45% during local night and after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

27 Mar 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40-105%
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30-40% 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Mar 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-50%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30-35%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Mar 
Solar:        R3, with an X1.2 at 0233UT, an M1.2 at 1407UT, 
              and an M1.1 at 2347UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Mar 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.1 at 2347UT, and an M5.4 at 0737UT
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (31 MARCH - 06 APRIL)
Solar: 
R0-R1, with a chance of R2 on 31-Mar to 1-Apr.
R0, with a chance of R1 for 2-6 Apr.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for most of 
the coming week, with a chance of G1 over 31-Mar
to 1-Apr  and 3-5 Apr due to coronal hole high speed 
wind stream effects.

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to 15% enhanced for most of the week. Mild depressions at
high latitudes are possible during 31-Mar to 1-Apr
due to geomagnetic activity caused by ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects. Mild depressions may
also be possible on 4-6 Apr if geomagnetic activity 
becomes elevated due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au