[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (10 March 23) issued 0052 UT on 10 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 10 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (03 MARCH - 09 MARCH)
Date     03    04    05    06    07    08    09
10cm    175   182   180   188   180   182   179
AFr      16    10    17    11     7     6  ( 13)
Aaus     14    11    17    12     7     6  ( 10)
T       101   110   122    98   123   128   138

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

03 Mar 
Solar:        R3, with an M3.3 at 1032UT, and an X2.1 at 1752UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-45%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Mar 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.0 at 0710UT, an M1.2 at 1342UT, 
              and an M5.3 at 1557UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35% during local day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-35% during local day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% during local day.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

05 Mar 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.3 at 0252UT, an M1.1 at 1641UT, 
              an M1.0 at 1701UT, and an M5.0 at 2136UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Variable conditions, MUFs depressed 15% to 30% enhanced at some sites.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day, with periods of absorption at Mawson.

06 Mar 
Solar:        R2, with an M5.8 at 0228UT, an M1.3 at 0912UT, 
              and an M1.0 at 1750UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35% .
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Mar 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Mar 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 1012UT, and an M1.4 at 
              2245UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-60%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

09 Mar 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 2245UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-65%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-45%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Comment: The X2 flare on 03-Mar, the M5.0 flare on 05-Mar,
and the M5.8 flare on 06-Mar were impulsive short duration events.

2. FORECAST (10 MARCH - 16 MARCH)
Solar: R0-R1, chance of R2 level flares later in the week.
Previously flare active solar region AR3229 is due back
to the solar north east limb on 14-Mar. In addition solar region 
AR3234 which was also flare active in its previous solar transit,
is due back also to the north east solar limb on 18-Mar.

Geomagnetic:  Generally G0, chance fof isolated G1 periods
during 14-15 Mar. 

Frequencies: MUFs near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Degraded overnight HF conditions, with possible brief depressions
after local dawn for southern region Australia during 14-15 Mar
Fadeouts more likely later in the week.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au